Decisions Decisions
One of the most difficult aspects of daily life that many of us have to deal with is making decisions and an even harder aspect is making good decisions.
The process of decision making can often be clear cut and the choices are obvious, but when that isn't the case and we are faced with difficult choices, we get stressed. Perhaps you have found that friends, collegues and family get frustrated with you when you can't make up your mind, or maybe you avoid them because their frustration makes an already difficult situation worse?
Balancing the options and arriving at good decisions comes naturally for some people, but if that isn't you then you can learn. The following is a basic guide to assist you in making decisions, preferably good ones, but it must be remembered that your intelligence and common sense are your most important assets in good decision making.
Think of the following information as a kind of toolbox, select from it the most appropriate method or combination of methods to suit you as an individual and the situation in which the decision is needed.
The toolbox contains; intuition, instinct, common sense and analysis.
Intuition
There are many views and discussions on what constitutes intuition, but for me intuition is the mind subconsciously extracting information from all around, digesting the data and spitting out an answer, often in a quiet subtle way. Some think it is far more spiritual than that, but whatever you believe you should consider it as a resource, one that isn’t used to its full potential.
Intuition can be thought of as your inner self is trying to communicate with you, maybe to send you a message which might manifest as an inkling or feeling and are easily missed, but your intuition is often persistent and it will try its best to make you listen.
So how can you improve your reception towards receiving intuitive messages?
Be quiet
Take time out to experience silence, ideally on a daily basis. Calm your mind and relax your need to think or analyse everything, if you know how to meditate then that will help. Your intuition works best when you are relaxed.
Ask questions
Ask yourself questions like, “What do I do now or what happens if”. Questioning will help bring a degree of clarity to a situation.
Trust yourself
Learn to trust yourself. The answer is probably already in you and all you need to do is listen and believe in yourself.
How does this help with decision making? Very often that, “gut feeling” or that, “first thought” is your intuition giving you help, but you have to become aware of it and listen for it. Sometimes your intuition will make itself known as a strong feeling shout out loud, banging a drum and presenting the answer in a blaze of neon lights and that “eureka” moment just can’t be ignored and as I said before intuition is likely to be subtle and quiet.
Instinct
While intuition will help with making a decision, it is often quiet and gentle in its approach, perhaps just a whisper or a feeling and there will be times you need to decide instantly and I believe that comes from instinct.
“Get out of the road a bus is coming!!!”.
This is decision making at the front line, where perhaps your peripheral vision relays an image to your inner mind your instinct that takes the decision to make you jump out of the way.
Instinct is built-in and we might consider it as the action centre of decision making. But instinct also works at a less, “in your face” way by giving you a natural ability to make a decision.
Intuition and instinct work closely together to enable us to decide a course of action, but what if the action is counter to everything we believe in or trust? That's where common sense lends a hand.
So with these built in tools we all make decisions naturally and we do every miniute of every day, but what happens when the problems or situations are complex and call for more considered decisions, what can help us decide?
Analysis
People with a natural ability towards decision making combine experience and an in built analytical instinct, for the rest of us there are tools we can use.
This section is the more practical of the tools in the box. There are many different methods of analysing a problem prior to making a decision and these can be mixed and matched and when coupled with intuition and instinct, you have at your disposal a powerful set of tools.
To keep this article brief, I will cover 3 of the simplest and most practical.
Pareto Analysis or 80/20
Pareto analysis is a statistical technique that helps you choose from a number of tasks the optimum solution with maximum effect and minimum effort. Pareto analysis uses the Pareto principle - an idea suggested by Joseph M. Juran that states that, for many events, 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.
In practical terms consider a situation where you need to make some important changes and the decision you have to make is to evaluate what you change and what you don’t.
Begin by making a list of all the changes you could make. Divide the list into related groups if you have a lot of changes to make.
Give each of the items in your list a value or score. The value would depend on the problem you are solving, e.g. it could be a monetary value, a quantity value or a simple 0 to 10 rating.
Look at your list and put it into order of value, highest to lowest. This will enable you to narrow the challenge because the highest scored items are likely to be those that will give the greatest benefit and these are where you should focus most of your effort.
Generally the lowest scored items can be ignored because they are likely to produce a minimal impact on the overall outcome and the effort might not be worth it, or they might be put aside for later fine tuning of the decision.
The Decision Matrix
Supposing you have to make a decision where all of the contributory factors are good or important and there are a lot of them, how do you do it?
The decision matrix is essentially a grid that compares the strengths and weaknesses of each factor with regard to multiple objectives of interest to you the decision maker. The name given to this technique is, “Multi-Attribute Utility Theory” or MAUT.
This method is best explained by example, so consider that you are planning a family holiday and you have to consider several different aspects of that holiday, for example, your options could be:
Beach holiday
Activity holiday
Health spar holiday
Family centre holiday (Centre parks, Butlins etc.)
The criteria you might consider are:
Cost
Relaxing for the adults
Fun for everyone
Good weather
Spar treatments
Swimming
Good food
Begin by drawing up a grid with the criteria as the column headings and the options as the row headings. (See below). Insert a row named “Weight”.
Score each option by how well it meets your criteria from 0 to 3 where 0 is poor and 3 very good. You can use the same value more than once.
In the weight row, give a rating for criteria based on the importance of the criteria, in this example the importance to your family. Since this grid has 7 criteria, weight the columns from 1 to 7. Now multiply each of your cell values by the weight values. This will give them the correct overall weight in your decision. Finally total up each row.
Well, it looks like it’s the family centre holiday this year with the beach holiday a close second.
The last analysis tool I will show you can be used with the decision matrix and that is, Paired Choice Analysis.
Paired Choice Analysis
With paired choice analysis, you compare a range of options and score them. The overall winner is given by the result of the scores.
This method is useful with the decision matrix, described previously, in deciding the values used as weighting factors for each of the options, therefore I will continue this explanation with that example. Begin by drawing up a grid with each option forming both the column and row headings, e.g. Cost, Relaxing for the adults, Fun for everyone, Good weather, Spar treatments, Swimming and Good food. Give each option a letter.
Draw a diagonal line across the grid from top left to bottom right and shade out the bottom left portion. These are duplicate cells comparisons. Start to compare each option with each other option deciding which of the two is most important to you or which is more or least different. Having decided which is more important write down the letter of the more important option in the cell and give it a score from 0 (no difference) to 3 (major difference).
Finally add up the totals of all the option values.
For this analysis I have assigned the same seven weighting values used with the decision matrix, i.e. the criteria with the highest total being given the highest weighting. If you need to present the results as percentages, convert the values into a percentage of the total score as shown.
Making Decisions
You can make good decisions by employing common sense, intuition, instinct and various analytical tools, some of which I have covered here. If you lack confidence begin with small decisions and practice your skills and as you become more confident move on to larger and more important decisions. You will make a mistake, that’s human, but in time you will be seen as a positive decision maker.
One final thought, a good decision maker will know when to decide and when to take advice.